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| Each round of the playoffs, I like to forecast the round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. It offers no assurances and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. Last year, this method forecasted the first round at a 7-1 clip; this year it was 5-3, with losses on Columbus, Colorado and San Jose. In the first two cases, their strong goaltending led to a calculated advantage, but it can be difficult for goaltending superiority to take effect over much larger samples, let alone seven games. As for the Sharks, they were in a virtual toss-up situation with the Kings, favoured by the smallest of margins. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, Boston had 32.1 shots on goal per game and Montreal has allowed 28.6 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 30.35 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Bruins. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for Round Two: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Boston 32.1 29.3 Tuukka Rask 0.933 15.93 Montreal 30.9 28.6 Carey Price 0.925 14.12 Verdict: The Bruins are favoured, with a slightly better shot differential and slightly better goaltending, and its simple enough that way. But when the Habs and Bruins meet in the playoffs, strange things can happen. Higher-seeded Canadiens teams have been bounced by lower-seeded Bruins teams and vice versa. Between these two incarnations of the Canadiens and Bruins is a wonderful contrast in styles as the Bruins are more physically-imposing while the Canadiens are a smaller, skilled group. While some teams (including the Red Wings in Round One) avoid getting into confrontations with the Bruins, the Canadiens havent always taken that approach, and it not only makes for entertaining hockey, it adds some variability to the process. Furthermore, if the Canadiens can keep Tuukka Rask off his game (his .908 save percentage vs. Montreal is his lowest vs. teams that hes faced at least 10 times in his career), then that could help close the calculated gap between the teams. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Pittsburgh 30.4 29.1 Marc-Andre Fleury 0.915 16.66 N.Y. Rangers 33.1 29.1 Henrik Lundqvist 0.920 18.50 Verdict: The Penguins were forecasted to lose -- or, more accurately, score fewer goals -- against Columbus, but here they are in the second round, looking at a similar forecast, against a team with a better shot differential and better goaltending. The Penguins are healthier than theyve been for most of the season, which helps, and they have elite forwards that can shake results. The Rangers could control play and it wouldnt take a Henrik Lundqvist collapse to see the Penguins get through. All it might take is Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin going off for a few games. Heck, they managed to get past Columbus with contributions from a lot more than Crosby and Malkin. Defencemen Paul Martin and Matt Niskanen led the Penguins with eight points, Brandon Sutter added five and Beau Bennett chipped in four. In my playoff picks, I had the Penguins going past the Rangers and its on the expectation that, at some point, the Penguins elite players will bury more of their chances, though that also requires some faith in Marc-Andre Fleury and that hasnt been a safe feeling for the Penguins in the playoffs for quite some time. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Anaheim 31.0 28.8 Frederik Andersen 0.918 17.26 Los Angeles 31.6 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.915 17.33 Anaheim 31.0 28.8 Jonas Hiller 0.912 17.26 Los Angeles 31.6 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.915 18.60 Verdict: I presume that the Ducks are going back to rookie Frederik Andersen, even after he was pulled twice against Dallas in the first round (but I included calculations for Hiller anyway). This is another really close series in which the Kings get slightly favoured because they have superior shot differential. The Ducks have exceeded more advanced possession metrics all year, in part because they have been insanely fortunate when it comes to shooting in close games. Oh, and here too. That isnt the kind of thing that seems possible to repeat over time but, it worked enough to take down Dallas in the first round, so it wouldnt come as a shock if they can do it against Los Angeles. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Chicago 32.9 27.8 Corey Crawford 0.919 18.15 Minnesota 27.2 27.4 Darcy Kuemper 0.914 15.59 Chicago 32.9 27.8 Corey Crawford 0.919 20.05 Minnesota 27.2 27.4 Ilya Bryzgalov 0.905 15.59 Verdict: Again, a presumption that the Wild will have Darcy Kuemper to start the series, despite leaving Game Seven against Colorado with an injury. If the Wild are really rolling with Ilya Bryzgalov, then the forecast will be unfavourable, just as it was in the first round, but if Kuemper is in, he offers a slightly better chance. No matter who is in net for the Wild, though, they will have their hands full, because they are facing a team that generates a whole lot more shots than their opponents. So long as Corey Crawford is decent, and there arent any major injuries, then the Blackhawks will warrant their status as prohibitive favourites. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Russ Morman Jersey . Yoenis Cespedes proved he can play through a hurting right heel, giving Scott Kazmir and the As a spark with a pair of RBIs that helped spoil the Minnesota Twins home opener with an 8-3 victory on Monday. Miguel Rojas Jersey .Sinclair, from Burnaby, B.C., led the Canadian team with three goals at the four-nation competition. She also earned tournament most valuable player honours.The Canadian captain scored on a penalty kick in the 63rd minute and added the winning goal a minute later. https://www.cheapmarlinsjerseys.us/ .Y. -- The New York Islanders were merely content with a lopsided victory. Ryne Stanek Jersey .S. routed Sweden 7-0 Sunday to win its fourth straight title and seventh overall under-18 world championship. Olson earned his third shutout of the tournament and the Americans allowed only four goals in six games to set an International Ice Hockey Federation under-18 record. J. T. Riddle Jersey . Rinehart joins safety Darrell Stuckey and linebacker Donald Butler as potential unrestricted free agents who are remaining with the team.TORONTO -- The CFL has ratified its collective bargaining agreement with the CFL Players Association. The leagues board of governors accepted the five-year deal during a conference call Friday. The CFLPA voted in favour Thursday night. "This agreement provides stability for our teams at the same time it improves pay, health and safety, and mobility for players," CFL commissioner Mark Cohon said in a statement."Were looking forward to a successful season and working together to grow this great league." Added CFLPA president Scott Flory: "The players are committed to putting the best possible product on the field and are excited to get back to the game that we all love." With both sides having signed off on the agreement, the 2014 regular season will kick off June 26 as originally scheduled. The new deal runs through May 15, 2019 or the first day of training camp that year. But if the combined revenues of the nine teams -- excluding Grey Cup -- increase by more than $27 million in any year of the agreement, both sides will renegotiate an increase to the cap starting in the 2016 season. The deal also changes how players are classified. Instead of being known as non-imports and imports, theyll be called nationals and internationals. A player will be considered a national under three scenarios: if he was a Canadian citizen at the time of signing his first contract; was classified as a non-import prior to May 31; or was a Canadian resident for an aggregate period of five years before turning 18. In the past, a player could be born in Canada and have Canadian citizenship but not qualify for non-import status if he received his football training outside of Canada. A example would be the sons of former CFL players who wwere born in Canada but learned their football in the U.ddddddddddddS. The CFL said while theres been a persistent argument non-imports should be called Canadians, there are players in the league who were counted as non-imports despite not being Canadian citizens. Other agreement details include: -- Increasing current salary cap per team from $4.4 million to $5 million this year and an additional $50,000 annually to a total of $5.2 million in 2018. -- Setting the cap minimum at $4.4 million this year and an additional $50,000 annually to $4.6 million in 2018. -- Increasing minimum salary from $45,000 to $50,000 this year, increasing $1,000 annually to $54,000 in 2018. -- Increasing pension contributions from $3,600 for clubs and $3,600 for players to $3,700 each in 2014 and an additional $100 annually to $4,100 each in 2018. -- A $1,500 ratification bonus for rookies and $7,500 for veterans, with the union determining the veteran scale. Each bonus will be paid to players on rosters as of June 22. -- Boosting active rosters from 42 to 44 players while decreasing reserve roster from four to two players. -- Eliminating the nine-game injured list and replacing it with a six-game list. Clubs can pull a maximum of two players off the six-game injury list early, without it counting against the cap for any player who continues to be on that list for more than six games. -- Amending training camp protocol to allow only one practice daily with contact. -- Amending in-season provisions to allow only one weekly practice with contact. -- Eliminating the option year required on all future contracts with the exception of rookie deals. -- Expanding practice rosters from seven to 10 players per team and 12 to 15 players come the fall. ' ' 'ncluding the Australian Open, French Open and Wimbledon. ' ' ' ACC. ' ' ' |
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